Islamabad, December 19, 2025: Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Senator Ishaq Dar has accused India of violating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), warning that New Delhi’s alleged manipulation of river flows into Pakistan could spark a humanitarian crisis as water levels in the Chenab River continue to decline.
The warning comes amid sharp fluctuations in the Chenab’s flow. On December 8, India reportedly released a surge of water into the river, raising flows to 58,300 cusecs. Pakistani authorities say the levels have since fallen dramatically, raising alarm over what they describe as abrupt and unexplained variations.
A day earlier, Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Hussain Andrabi criticised India for “continued violations” of the treaty, expressing serious concern over the sudden changes in river flows. The issue has drawn widespread attention in domestic media.
Indus Water Commissioner Mehr Ali Shah told reporters on Friday that a significant decline in Chenab levels had been detected and that Pakistan had formally taken up the matter with its Indian counterpart. He said the river’s flow was recorded at just 1,800 cusecs on December 16 and accused India of withholding advance hydrological data, a requirement under the IWT. Shah stressed that Pakistan had fully complied with its treaty obligations and described India’s lack of cooperation as a “serious matter.”
Meanwhile, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reported a total release of 75,600 cusecs from rim stations against an inflow of 37,800 cusecs. According to IRSA data, the Indus River at Tarbela Dam stood at 1,486.39 feet—84.39 feet above dead level—with an inflow of 18,900 cusecs and an outflow of 27,000 cusecs. At Mangla Dam, water levels were recorded at 1,202.40 feet, or 152.40 feet above dead level, with inflow and outflow at 3,300 cusecs and 33,000 cusecs, respectively.
Releases at Kalabagh, Taunsa, Guddu and Sukkur were measured at 33,500 cusecs, 24,500 cusecs, 27,800 cusecs and 1,400 cusecs, respectively. From the Kabul River, 7,700 cusecs were released at Nowshera, while 1,900 cusecs were discharged into the Chenab at Marala.
Earlier, addressing members of the diplomatic corps, Dar voiced concern over what he termed “unusual and abrupt” variations in Chenab flows on two occasions this year—between April 30 and May 21, and again from December 7 to 15. He said India’s alleged manipulation of water during critical phases of Pakistan’s agricultural calendar threatened lives, livelihoods and food security.
Dar accused India of halting the exchange of advance information, hydrological data and joint oversight mechanisms mandated under the treaty, warning that such actions exposed Pakistan to risks of both floods and droughts. He also argued that India’s conduct violated international law, including Article 26 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.
According to Dar, Pakistan’s Indus Water Commissioner has already sought clarification from India under the treaty’s dispute-resolution mechanisms, urging New Delhi to stop what he described as “unilateral manipulation” of river flows. He further alleged that India was attempting to undermine the treaty through hydropower projects such as Kishanganga and Ratle, claiming these projects breached IWT specifications and increased India’s water storage capacity at Pakistan’s expense.
The deputy prime minister also accused India of placing the treaty in “unlawful and unilateral abeyance,” calling it a case of the weaponisation of water. He said Pakistan had recorded a severe reduction in Chenab flows and was awaiting India’s response to official communications on the issue.
Dar noted that the Permanent Court of Arbitration had recently reaffirmed the validity of the Indus Waters Treaty and its dispute-resolution framework, warning that Pakistan would not accept Indian non-compliance “with impunity.” He recalled that Pakistan’s National Security Committee had previously termed any attempt to divert or halt river flows into Pakistan an “act of war.”
Urging the United Nations Security Council and major global capitals to intervene, Dar called on the international community to press India to restore full implementation of the treaty and halt what he described as the weaponisation of water. He reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to peaceful dispute resolution but said the country would not compromise on its “existential water rights.”
In April, India had unilaterally announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following an attack on tourists in occupied Kashmir’s Pahalgam that killed 26 people—an incident New Delhi blamed on Pakistan. Islamabad rejected the allegation and warned that any attempt to withhold Pakistan’s share of water under the treaty would amount to an “act of war,” noting that the agreement contains no provision for unilateral suspension.
