Islamabad, March 4, 2026: Federal Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Wednesday cautioned over the country’s oil stock position amid global uncertainty triggered by the ongoing US-Israel and Iran war, but assured lawmakers that Pakistan was not facing an emergency-like situation.
Briefing the Senate Standing Committee on Finance, chaired by Senator Saleem Mandviwala, the minister advised adopting fuel conservation measures as a precaution.
“We are not going for rationing of fuel as there is no fuel shortage in the country, but things could become serious if the war drags on,” Aurangzeb said in response to queries from committee members.
Officials informed the panel that Pakistan currently has petrol and diesel stocks for 28 days, crude oil reserves for 10 days, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies for 15 days.
However, Aurangzeb noted that some cargoes had been delayed in Qatar due to regional tensions. To offset potential shortfalls, domestic gas production from local fields was being enhanced.
The committee was told that the finance ministry would hold daily meetings with relevant departments to closely monitor the country’s fuel position as well as fluctuations in international oil prices.
The briefing comes as Pakistan formally requested the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to provide an alternative oil supply route through the Port of Yanbu, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating hostilities in the Gulf.
Energy imports constitute a significant portion of Pakistan’s annual import bill, making the country particularly vulnerable to disruptions in global oil supply chains.
Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, Jamil Ahmad, also briefed the committee on the broader economic outlook, warning that global oil prices could climb to $100 per barrel if tensions persist, potentially increasing pressure on Pakistan’s external sector.
He said foreign exchange reserves were at a “comfortable” level, exceeding $16 billion. The central bank expects reserves to rise to $18 billion by June and around $20 billion by December.
Ahmad emphasized that the reserves were not built through fresh external borrowing. Instead, the central bank had purchased approximately $24 billion from the market over the past three years, helping stabilize the rupee and strengthen external buffers.
Pakistan’s external debt has grown from $55 billion to about $103 billion over time, he said, while total external liabilities currently stand at around $138 billion. However, he clarified that no additional external borrowing had taken place in the last four years.
The SBP governor projected inflation for the current fiscal year to remain between 5 and 7 percent, with a similar range expected next fiscal year. However, he cautioned that rising geopolitical tensions and energy prices could influence inflation trends in the coming months.
“Rising geopolitical risks and energy prices may affect Pakistan’s import bill and domestic inflation,” Ahmad noted.
He added that the current account deficit is expected to remain around 1 percent of gross domestic product this fiscal year and stay within projected limits despite higher petroleum prices.
The government’s reassurances come as global markets remain volatile due to the widening Middle East conflict, raising concerns about sustained energy price shocks and their potential impact on import-dependent economies like Pakistan.
