New Delhi/Islamabad, May 16, 2025: In the wake of the deadly April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that left 26 civilians dead, India is reportedly considering expanding its control over water flows from rivers designated to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a move that Islamabad warns could amount to an “act of war.”
According to sources familiar with the matter, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has directed officials to fast-track infrastructure projects on the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers — all crucial to Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower sectors.
Among the most ambitious proposals is the expansion of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River, which would increase India’s draw from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second — a dramatic rise that could deeply impact water flow into Pakistan’s Punjab province.
Though the Indus Waters Treaty grants India limited use of these rivers for irrigation and run-of-the-river hydropower, experts warn that any move to divert or store significant amounts of water could breach the treaty’s terms. The accord, brokered by the World Bank, is one of the world’s most enduring water-sharing agreements and has withstood wars and diplomatic rifts.
India suspended its participation in the treaty following the April attack, blaming Pakistan-based groups for the incident — a claim Islamabad has strongly denied. Despite a ceasefire agreed last week, the treaty has not been reinstated.
Pakistani officials have protested the suspension as unlawful. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan will be considered an act of war,” Islamabad declared in a statement last month. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed that legal action is being prepared in international forums, including the World Bank and the International Court of Justice.
Meanwhile, India is also preparing a list of new hydropower and water storage projects in Jammu and Kashmir, aiming to boost capacity from 3,360 to 12,000 megawatts. These include potential storage dams — a first for India in the Indus basin — which could drastically reshape water flow dynamics.
Indian Water Minister C.R. Paatil, echoing Modi’s rhetoric that “blood and water cannot flow together,” pledged that “not a drop of water will go out” of India unnecessarily.
Water security analysts warn that the consequences of such actions could ripple far beyond the subcontinent. “Weaponizing water not only destabilizes regional peace, but also risks inviting similar retaliatory strategies from China on India’s own upstream dependencies,” said David Michel of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Pakistan, where 80% of farms and nearly all hydropower projects depend on the Indus system, has already seen early signs of pressure. Flow at one key water point reportedly dropped by up to 90% earlier this month during Indian maintenance works.
With both nations still navigating a fragile post-ceasefire environment, the future of the Indus Waters Treaty — and the security it has long underpinned — hangs in the balance.
