Islamabad, October 5, 2025: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has asked Pakistan to publicly clarify $11 billion worth of discrepancies in its official trade data over the last two fiscal years, raising concerns about the credibility of the country’s external sector statistics, according to official sources.
Government sources said that imports reported by Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) were $5.1 billion lower than those reported by the Pakistan Single Window (PSW) during fiscal year 2023–24, with the gap widening to $5.7 billion in the following year.
PSW’s import data — regarded as more comprehensive and inclusive of all import entries — was also found to be higher than the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) freight-on-board (FoB)-based import figures, which are used to calculate the current account balance.
The discrepancies came under scrutiny during pre-review discussions between Pakistani officials and the IMF this week. According to sources, the IMF had approached the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) before formal review talks began and later took up the issue with the Ministry of Planning and Development.
The IMF urged Pakistan to adopt a transparent communication policy to explain the data inconsistencies and clarify any methodological changes to maintain public and investor confidence.
Officials reportedly admitted to the IMF that trade data submitted to the Geneva-based International Trade Center (ITC) by the PBS was not comprehensive, with certain import figures missing from its reports. However, they stressed that the underreporting was unintentional, resulting from the transition of trade data systems from PRAL to PSW.
PRAL operates under the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), while PSW is an independent legal entity, though staffed largely by Customs Department officers.
The sources said PSW’s system captures 15 categories of goods declarations, compared to only seven in PRAL’s dataset, which led to large data gaps — particularly in trade facilitation schemes and raw material imports.
The discrepancies reportedly grew sharply during FY2023–24 and FY2024–25, and the trend has continued into the first two months of the current fiscal year (July–August).
The IMF has directed Pakistan to correct and update past trade figures and share them with both the Fund and domestic stakeholders, including the media. It also advised Islamabad to publicly explain any revisions to avoid doubts over the reliability of official data.
“A lack of communication regarding data revisions creates mistrust among data users and undermines confidence in official statistics,” the IMF reportedly told Pakistani officials.
The discrepancies surfaced during a joint review of trade data ordered by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to investigate differences between figures reported by Pakistani importers and Chinese exporters.
A committee comprising representatives from the FBR, PBS, PRAL, and PSW reviewed five years of data and discovered that PBS’s data retrieval system, based on outdated query software last updated in 2017, had failed to incorporate newer import categories, resulting in systematic underreporting.
The most significant gaps were found in the textile sector, where nearly $3 billion worth of imports were omitted from PBS’s reporting. The metal group was also understated by about $1 billion in FY2023–24, according to internal reviews.
Despite the IMF’s push for transparency, sources said PBS remains hesitant to revise and publish corrected data for previous fiscal years. Officials at the Finance Ministry are reportedly concerned that revised import figures could alter net export calculations and impact GDP growth estimates.
