Islamabad, October 17, 2025: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has dismissed reports predicting an exceptionally cold winter this year, stating that there is no scientific evidence to support such claims.
In a statement issued on Friday, the Met Office clarified that while the country could experience a few mild cold waves due to western disturbances, there were no indications of an intensely cold winter.
“The country can expect some winter waves with minor intensity due to the western wind, but there are no possibilities of an intensely cold winter. This year, the country is expecting less rainfall between December and February,” the PMD said.
The department forecast below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country in the upcoming winter months.
The clarification came in response to a recent report by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG), which had warned that Pakistan might face one of its coldest winters in decades due to the La Niña climate phenomenon.
The PMD, however, rejected this assessment, saying that it has no scientific data suggesting an extreme drop in temperatures this year.
La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean fall below average, disrupting global weather systems and sometimes causing extreme cold or dry conditions in South Asia.
Meanwhile, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA), in its October situation report, noted that marginally negative phases of both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to influence Pakistan’s upcoming weather patterns.
According to the report, northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit Baltistan may experience below-normal rainfall, while southern regions, including Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab, are likely to receive near-normal precipitation.
It added that the evolving climatic patterns could still pose significant challenges, particularly in areas recovering from the monsoon floods.
“Expected impacts include possible disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting due to isolated storms, increased risk of dengue outbreaks, higher chances of glacial lake outburst floods in upper areas, reduced river inflows affecting irrigation, elevated smog and air pollution in plains, and adverse effects on livestock health and fodder availability,” the report said.
While the PMD’s outlook rules out an extremely cold winter, experts caution that regional variations—especially in mountainous areas of KP and Gilgit Baltistan—could still bring periods of lower-than-usual temperatures.
The department reiterated that it continues to monitor climate indicators closely and will update its forecasts if any significant shifts in La Niña or IOD conditions occur.
